Seven years ago, a mere a short phrase to energize a Labour conference and to show Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase met with wild cheering as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.
During that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against the leadership he would later replace.
The Evolution in Position & Closed Issues
Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite polling evidence indicates a significant number have died or changed their minds.
Pressure Building on Europe
However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if Europe is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen again.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.
Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.
Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals
The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to an expansive version designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which young people can travel between the UK and the EU to study or work.
David Lammy muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of joining an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, last week supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.
While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines are still in place, there are ways to work around them. One idea would be to announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.
Starmer's Fundamental Doubts
Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again by warning a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he regards as signature achievements of his government.
It is understood that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.
- First, he thinks any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous policy areas, like environmental standards.
- Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain and are more focused on proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to keep its distance from Europe.
An Alarming Strategy and Geopolitical Considerations
This strange and concerning document claims Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of Muslim migration. It includes only one reference of the UK, found on a proposal that the US government will intervene in our politics to encourage the rise of nationalist movements.
But, far from deciding that this makes America an undependable ally, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Leadership Speculation & The Ghost from the Past
All of which returns us to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.
But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe.
Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a future race to replace Starmer, insist she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Clear Risk & A Wise Reminder
The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters reside.
It would be wise for Starmer to remember the impact just a few words had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.
